THE TERRORIST THREAT RESULTING FROM THE GAZA CRISIS AND THE SECURITY RISK IN THE MEDIUM TERM 

By Claude MONIQUET, President of ESISC  

(Ismael Mohamad/Upi/Photo News)

It seems obvious to us that Operation ‘Cast Lead,’ which risks causing more casualties in the days to come, may lead to a terrorist threat on both the local and international levels and that it may have consequences for security in the medium term.   Read more…

La menace terroriste découlant de la crise de Gaza et le risque sécuritaire à moyen terme 

Par Claude MONIQUET, Président de l’ESISC 

(Ismael Mohamad/Upi/Photo News)

Il nous semble évident que l’opération « Plomb durci », dont le bilan humain risque fort de s’alourdir dans les jours à venir, induit une menace terroriste tant locale qu’internationale et qu’elle aura, du point de vue sécuritaire, des conséquences à moyen terme... Lire la suite    

India/Civil unrest: 80 hurt as police disperse a Shi'ite Muslims’ procession

At least 80 people were wounded on Tuesday when police forces dispersed a Shi'ite Muslims’ procession in Kashmir. The procession was a part of Ashura, a religious ritual marking the death of Imam Hussein, the grandson of the Prophet Mohammad.

Shi'ites clashed with the police in several parts of Srinagar, following the police raid, said witnesses. "We strongly condemn the excessive use of force and police brutality," said Moulana Abbas Ansari, a leading Shi'ite priest and chief of Ittihad-ul-Muslimeen. "More than 150 people were detained," said Parvez Mohammed, a police officer.

The procession in Srinagar was headed by members of Ittihad-ul-Muslimeen Jammu Kashmir, a part of the All Parties Hurriyat (Freedom) Conference, the main separatist union. Any kind of public gatherings have been banned in Kashmir since the 1989 uprising against the Indian rule.

Thailand/Civil unrest: pro-Thaksin protesters threatens to block Asean summit

Supporters of Thailand's exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra have warned they will demonstrate to prevent the summit of the Association of Southeast Asian nations (ASEAN). Jatuporn Prompan, a pro-Thaksin leader said "We will write to all nine ASEAN ambassadors to ask them to convey our message that the red-shirts will not allow Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya to host the ASEAN meeting". Another opposition politician warned "We will not allow the terrorist Kasit to host the summit. We will mobilise hundreds of thousands to rally to show that the majority of Thai people do not accept him". The ‘red shirts’ have previously demonstrated a series of furious protests when a court ruling removed the former pro-Thaksin government from power.

Abhisit Vejjajiva, the new Prime Minister came to power on December last year. Reacting to the threat, he urged the protestors not to block the meeting, noting they should put the country first. "I want everybody to uphold our national interest," said Vejjajiva. "This is not only about the government but the entire Thai nation as it affects Thailand's status as chairman of Asean," he added.

Somalia/ONU : a WFP aid worker assassinated in the region of Gedo

The World Food Programme has announced in a statement on Monday that gunmen killed  an aid worker in Southern Somalia.  “Three masked gunmen shot and killed 44-year-old Somali national Ibrahim Hussein Duale, while he was monitoring school feeding in a WFP-supported school in Yubsan village six kilometres from the Gedo region capital of Garbahare” said the statement.

Josette Sheeran, the Executive Director of the NGO said “We call on all parties to allow us to do our job – providing food to feed the hungry at this critical time”. “We are an impartial international organization and we need a minimum of security to serve the Somali people.” She added. The Gedo region borders Kenya and Ethiopia and Ibrahim Hussein Duale is the third man who has been killed in Somalia since August 2008.

Somalia is extremely dangerous and insecurity is rising as Ethiopian troops withdraw from the country. According to the WFP, a total of 3.25 million people – or 43 percent of the entire population – need humanitarian assistance.

Sri Lanka/Defense: security forces seize rebel defense line

The Sri Lankan security forces seized on Tuesday one of the strongest fortification for the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), resulting the guerillas to retreat, said the army. The capture at Muhamalai on the Jaffna peninsula followed the government’s continuous attempt to ring the rebels and finally crush the insurgency.

"Our forces are moving, and very confidently, and they are moving forward," said Keheliya Rambukwella, a defense spokesman. He said the government is looking forward to cast the rebels out of the northern region in the "coming weeks," and successfully end the 25-year-old LTTE uprising.

The rebels offered less resistance than usual in the area, said Brig. Udaya Nanayakkara, a military spokesman. "They are withdrawing step by step," he added. Kilinochchi, the LTTE administrative capital was captured last week. The violence in the LTTE’s arm struggle has killed more than 70,000 people.

China/Piracy: Chinese navy joins global effort to fight piracy off Somalia coast

In a first ever exercise by the Chinese navy, four merchant ships were escorted out of the troubled waters off the coast of Somalia on Tuesday following rising instances of piracy in the region. “We will carry out careful deployment and strictly observe UN resolutions and relevant international laws to fulfill our obligations,” said Rear-Admiral Du Jingchen, the commander of the naval operations in the region.
 
The fleet, which had prior permission from the United Nations Security Council and Somalia's interim government to operate in the area, comprises two destroyers and one supply ship fitted with missiles, cannons and light weapons. It has a 800-strong crew, including 70 special force personnel. The move by the Chinese Navy follows a UN Security Council resolution promoting cooperation from countries across the globe to help man the pirate-infested waters. The International Maritime Bureau has reported that 14 ships, out of the over 100 vessels, attacked in 2008 are still being held for ransom by the Somali pirates.

Guinea-Bissau/Security: Batista Tagme Na Wai survives to an assassination attempt

According to a statement published by the Guinea-Bissau army, chief General Batista Tagme Na Wai escaped an assassination attempt on Sunday night after the President’s body guards opened fire in his direction, There were no reports of injury. Denying the allegations, a presidential guard spokesperson said it was an accident and not a planned act to kill the general.

According to reports, at midnight, on January 4, a presidential guard indiscriminately fired several rounds from his AK-47 rifle at the direction where General Na Wai and his men had assembled. Following the incident, the armed forces demanded immediate demobilization of the Aguentas militia who were deployed by Interior Minister Cipriano Cassama as President Vieira's guards.

Cassama had engaged a 400-man force of the Aguentas militia as Viera’s bodyguards following an assassination attempt by dissident soldiers in November. The military has now decided to disband the militia.

United States/Mexico/Kidnapping: ttill clueless about the anti – kidnap expert’s abduction

The abduction on December 10 of Felix Batista in the city of Saltillo, nothern Mexico is a mystery said the police on Monday. "We have not had contact with Batista or those who took him," an official at the Coahuila attorney general's office said. No ransom has been demanded for the Cuban-American, who negotiated the release of hostages held by Colombian rebels in past years.

Last month, an official hinted that the attorney general suspected drug cartels to have organised the abduction. According to some security analysts, Batista may have been kidnapped in retaliation for helping the release of captives in Mexico.

Kidnappings are on the rise across Mexico, with the shootout between drug cartels accounting for the death of 5,650 people last year. Batista is one of least 17 US residents kidnapped in Mexico since October last year.

Sudan/Threat: Darfur rebels accused for a possible attack

Mutrif Siddiq, the Sudanese Foreign ministry undersecretary said on Monday the rebels are preparing to lauch attack against sudanese cities and oil fields in South Kordofan by building up forces in Chad. "If this happens it is going to have a very negative impact," Siddiq told the press agency Reuters and the BBC. "The rebellion in Darfur will escalate. (The rebels) will feel jubilant... They will say they are fighting a legitimate cause against a criminal government and a criminal president." he added with reference to Omar Hassan al-Bashir who is prodecuted for war crimes

The Justice and Equality Movement rebel group wasn’t immediately available for comment on the accusations. However, rebel leaders have repeatedly declared they could attack Sudan "anytime, anywhere".

the international court's chief prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo accused on July the Sudanese president Omar Hassan al-Bashir of genocide and war crimes in Darfur. An international arrest warrant was also launched against the Sudanese president. The International Court judges are expected to decide on whether to issue the warrant later this month.

GAZA : L’inévitable confrontation 

Par Dimitri DOMBRET, chercheur associé à l’ESISC 

(Scott Barbour/Upi/Photo News)

Plus d’une semaine après le début de l’opération ’’Plomb durci’’, une confrontation sans précédent entre le Hamas et l’Etat d’Israël, qui a déjà entraîné la mort de plus de 450 Gazaouis – en grande majorité des membres du mouvement islamiste et des militaires –, des milliers de blessés et 5 morts du côté israélien – dont un soldat –, retour sur une crise inéluctable, à l’heure où les forces israéliennes ont lancé dimanche 4 janvier leur offensive terrestre à Gaza… Lire la suite 

GAZA: THE inEvitable confrontation 

By Dimitri DOMBRET, ESISC Research Associate 

(Scott Barbour/Upi/Photo News)

More than a week after the start of Operation ‘Cast Lead,’  an unprecedented confrontation between Hamas and the State of Israel which has already resulted in the death of more than 450 Gazans – mostly members of the Islamist movement and soldiers -, thousands of wounded and 5 deaths on the Israeli side – including one soldier – we look at this inevitable crisis on Sunday, January 4, at the moment when Israeli forces launched their ground offensive in Gaza… Read more

Ethiopia/Threat: ONLF warns Petronas on oil exploration

The Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), an Ethiopian rebel group, has warned the company Petronas for its oil exploration in the remote regions of Ethiopia, noting that it would link the company to war crimes committed by the Ethiopian military. ONLF guerrillas declared that Ogaden was a war zone and the government had no right to sign contracts there.

A statement by the rebels said, "We urge Petronas to exercise corporate responsibility and steer clear of Ogaden so long as our people are victims of genocide and their rights to determine their own future are violently denied." "To do anything less would be to act as an accomplice to a regime engaged in yet another African genocide," the statement said.

The ONLF has been objecting foreign energy companies in its region. The rebels attacked an Ogaden oil field in April 2007, killing 74 people. Petronas, a Malaysian state-owned company is among various international companies exploring oil and gas deposits in different parts of Ethiopia.

India/Terrorism: Manmohan Singh accuses Pakistani agencies for the Mumbai attacks

(Christopher Brown/Polaris/Photo News)

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh claimed on Tuesday Pakistani agencies are behind the Mumbai terror attacks. "There is enough evidence to show that, given the sophistication and military precision of the attack it must have had the support of some official agencies in Pakistan," said Singh. Though Singh did not named the suspected Pakistani agencies, he made clear that Pakistan is unwilling or unable to deal with the terrorists, noting further that Pakistan is whipping up "war hysteria". "The more fragile a government, the more it tends to act in an irresponsible fashion,” said Singh.

Responding to this, Islamabad said India’s allegation is risking their joint efforts to fight terrorism. "Scoring points like this will only move us further away from focusing on the very real and present danger of regional and global terrorism," said Sherry Rehman, Pakistan's information minister. Islamabad has so far declined New Delhi's demands to hand over a number of suspected terrorists. India also made clear of its plans to launch a major diplomatic offensive to maintain an international pressure on Pakistan.

United States/Defense: Obama choose former Clinton aide Panetta as CIA director

Democratic officials in Washington said on Monday that President-elect Barack Obama has selected Leon Panetta, a former California congressman to serve as the next director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). Panetta, 70, a Democrat and former US representative from California, is Mr. Obama’s second pick for top intelligence positions.

Panetta, who was chief of staff to former President Bill Clinton has a strong reputation in budged issues, but he has little hands on intelligence experience. If confirmed by the Senate, he would be among the few directors in agency history with no prior experience at one of the nation's spy services.

However, some senior Democrats in Congress questioned the selection. “My position has consistently been that I believe the agency is best-served by having an intelligence professional in charge at this time,” said Senator Dianne Feinstein who, as chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, would be in charge of Mr. Panetta’s confirmation. "It was a surprise, but I think he will prove to be a valuable pick," said a source with close ties to US intelligence.

Pakistan/Security: US/NATO supply route in Khyber Pass reopened

According to Tariq Hayat, The administrator of the Khyber tribal area in northwest Pakistan, the key supply route to Afghanistan in Khyber Pass was reoponed on Sunday to "traffic for every type of vehicle" including NATO supply convoys. “The active operation is over. Now we are engaged in the mopping-up phase of the operation against anti-social and anti-state elements,” he said, referring to the Taleban. According to a political official in Jamrud - a town located along the road - "the road would be open daily from 11 a.m. to 4 p.m., after which a curfew would allow the military to continue the operation against militants".

The United States have insisted on Pakistan to launch the operation after several attacks occured against NATO supply trucks and girls' schools in the region. So Islamabad has begun the operation last Tuesday. An intelligence source who remains anonymous told CNN that "since Friday, more than 200 people, most of them Taliban members and criminals, were arrested in the Khyber Agency".

A similar offensive in June failed to reduce militant attacks. During the previous operation, US’s unmanned aircrafts fired missiles to disrupt Al-Qaeda and Taliban militants in the Afghan border.

With the US planing to deploy up to 30,000 additional troops to Afghanistan this year, the importance of the supply routes has increased. The route delivers up to 75 percent of the fuel, food and other goods for the Western forces.

Democratic Republic of Congo/Insurgency:  Rebel chief denies leadership change

Officers from the National Congress for the Defence of the People (CNDP), one of the main rebel military group in Democratic Republic of Congo,  revealed on Monday that Laurent N'kunda, was not defeated by a dissident group. "Laurent Nkunda is still chairman of the CNDP. There has not been any leadership change in the movement, the power in CNDP still rests with Nkunda," said to the press agency AFP Colonel Makinga Sultani, number two in the CNDP.

Earlier on Monday, other officers had announced the dismissal of Laurent N'Kunda for "poor leadership". They added that the decision was taken on Sunday, after a staff officers meeting. Laurent N'kunda heads the Tutsi rebel movement since it was set up in 2006.

Meanwhile, Ugandan rebels of the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) have launched a pair of fresh attacks in north-eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, but left no casualties since the targets were deserted, an official said on Monday.

Sri Lanka/Insurgency: gunmen destroy studio of MBC Network TV in Colombo

Unidentified gunmen armed with grenades destroyed the main studio of Sri Lanka’s largest private broadcasting network on Tuesday. The attack came after state media criticised MBC Network TV for coverage of Tamil Tiger suicide blast last week. According to witnesses and station officials at least 15 masked gunmen knocked MBC Network’s three TV stations and four radio channels off the air after the gunmen blew up the master control room. "It's either that the citizens of Sri Lanka are able to drive around attacking institutions armed with weapons and grenades, or there is a hand behind it," MTV Channel head Cheevan Daniel told reporters when asked who was responsible.

So far no group has claimed responsibility for the attack. The studio complex was badly damaged after the attack. Smoke billowed out of the building as firefighters battled the blaze and an army bomb squad checked for more explosives.

Israel/Diplomacy: Ehud Olmert rejects a ceasefire proposition

(Polaris Images/Photo News)

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert rejected a UN resolution for ceasefire in the war on Hamas during his meeting on Monday with the French President Nicolas Sarkozy. The UN Security Council’s resolution calling for a ceasefire “would not be appropriate,” said Olmert. “Today it's Hamas, tomorrow it will be Hezbollah and the Islamic Jihad and the day after, Al-Qaeda,” he warned. During a close conversation on Monday with European Foreign ministers, the Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak said for his part that the Hamas "must not be allowed to win its conflict with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF)". Nicolas Sarkozy underlied that Europe is looking forward to a ceasefire as soon as possible. But Ehud Olmert, Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni agreed yesterday that the diplomatic efforts should proceed in parallel with the ongoing ground operation in Gaza. According to officials,  the UN Security Council is to hold a ministerial meeting on Tuesday under the pressure of Arab states.

While on the ground, the military operations still goes on, a 3-month-old baby was lightly wounded Tuesday when a Grad rocket exploded in a residential area of Gedera, 30 kilometers from Tel Aviv. Three other people were also treated for shock in hospital. Militants of the Hamas also fired at least nine other rockets that exploded in the western Negev, and in the southern towns of Netivot and Ofakim on Tuesday. They caused neither casualties nor property damage.

Ten Palestinians were also killed on Monday in Deir al-Balah after Israeli navy fired shells toward a beach in the area. According to John Holmes, a United Nations Humanitarian chief, about 500 Palestinians have been killed and 125 wounded since the begining of the military operations. The Hamas use civilians as human shields to continue the launching of rockets against Israel or to protect amunitions, preventing IDF reactions. Since Israeli soldiers entered Gaza, at least 130 Hamas terrorists were killed.

An IDF report, in addition to the 24 already reported, also accounts for five soldiers wounded in fighting overnight in Gaza. A misfired tank round fired during heavy fighting in Gaza on Monday killed three IDF soldiers.

Nigeria/France/Piracy: a French vessel hijacked off Nigeria waters

The French company Bourbon said on Monday that pirates hijacked on Sunday one of its vessel and detained nine crew members in southern Nigeria. According to a statement, the captain of the Bourbon Leda spoke with the company and said that all the crew members were unharmed. Stephanie Elbaz, Bourbon spokeswoman precised that the crew was composed of "five Nigerians, two Ghanaians, one person from Cameroon and one from Indonesia". She also added she had no informations about the number of pirates and their demands.

Bourbon provides specialist boats for the oil and gas industry in this waters oil-rich region. Nigeria's delta region and the nearby Gulf of Guinea are among the world's most pirate-infested waters, ranking only after sea routes near Somalia and Indonesia. It is the second time in two months that a boat belonging to Bourbon is hijacked in the region. Last October 31, seven French and three African oil workers were seized off the coast of Cameroon. They were freed after 11 days.