Briefings 41 to 60

Une guerre d'influence contre l'Etat Islamique pousse AQMI et ses diverses ramifications à se redeployer vers le sud du Sahel
Là où l’Etat Islamique (EI) domine au Moyen-Orient, Al-Qaïda est à son avantage en Afrique. Toutefois, la position d’Al-Qaïda a récemment été de plus en plus menacée par l’EI qui tente d’accroitre son influence sur le continent africain. Ces trois dernières années, on observe une certaine croissance des cellules liées à l’Etat islamique notamment en Somalie, en Libye, au Nigeria, ainsi qu’en Tanzanie.
Prior security breaches at Brussels Airport were numerous and known
It is not possible to assert that the attack on Brussels National Airport (also known as “Zaventem” after the municipality in which the airport is located) could have been avoided.
Les failles de sécurité à l’aéroport de Bruxelles étaient nombreuses et connues
Il est impossible d’affirmer que l’attentat qui a frappé, le 22 mars, l’aéroport de Bruxelles –National (« de Zaventem », du nom de la commune sur le territoire de laquelle il est implanté), aurait pu être évité.
Escalating violence in Niger Delta and Biafra regions represents a major security challenge for the oil-rich south of Nigeria
Since the beginning of the year the steady raise of violence in Nigeria’s southeast demonstrate a new alarming trend for regional security since Goodluck Jonathan, the first president from the Niger Delta regions, lost re-election in March 2015. The latest incidents, in the context of dramatically decreasing oil prices and of the persistent Boko Haram insurgency in the northeast, represent a worrying situation for the Nigerian government. The possible consolidation of forces of pro-Biafra and Niger Delta rebels along with campus cult groups may seriously challenge security and stability of the region in the nearest future.
Somalia: Despite regional setbacks and internal tensions Al-Shabaab remains a challenge for regional security
The events occurred in the past months in Kenya and Somalia show that Al-Shabaab, the Somalia-based terrorist group, is not only strengthening its influence in the region, but also expanding its ties with other Islamist terrorist groups present in Eastern Africa. In particular, the conduct of more high-profile coordinated attacks on diversified targets, including highly secured areas, suggests that Al-Shabaab is increasingly becoming an international terrorist threat.
San Bernardino shooting highlights security challenges posed by 'lone wolf' attacks
The mass shooting in San Bernardino on December 2, 2015, once again launched criticisms of the competency of security infrastructure in tracking “lone wolf” terrorist plots. Though it is possible attackers discussed jihadist leaning privately online before the shooting, the trail they left was so small-scale as to be negligible, and was undetected by authorities until after the fact. Faced with “lone wolf” attacks that are difficult to detect and even harder to prevent, security officials face the increasingly vital question of how to successfully counter individually orchestrated and perpetrated attacks.
Les attaques terroristes à Paris, « acte de guerre », baromètre des risques géopolitiques croissant pour la France
Le vendredi 13 Novembre, une série d’attaques terroristes coordonnées d’une ampleur sans précédent a frappé Paris à 6 endroit différents, y compris au Stade de France ainsi qu’au Bataclan. 8 terroristes, dont 7 kamikazes ayant déclenché des charges explosives sont morts, et au moins 128 civils tués dont plus de 80 lors de l’attaque au Bataclan. Les assaillants étaient lourdement armés, équipés de fusils AK-47 et de gilets chargés explosifs au sein d’une opération complexe, multicouche, coordonnée et semble-t-il orchestrée par l’État Islamique.
Paris terrorist attacks, ‘an act of war’, highlight dramatically increasing geopolitical risks for France
On Friday, November 13, a series of unprecedented coordinated terror attacks hit Paris in 6 different locations, including the Stade de France and the concert hall Bataclan. 8 terrorists were killed, including 7 who apparently triggered explosives charges, and at least 128 civilians died, including more than 80 in the attack on the Bataclan. Assailants were heavily armed, using AK-47 rifles, explosive vests and Kalashnikovs, in a complex, multilayered, coordinated operation apparently masterminded by the Islamic State.
Cyber-Jihad is becoming a priority for Islamic State
The series of hacking attacks against US and British interests on September 11 and 12, as well as a series of hacking campaigns in October against Israeli interests, carried out by the new IS cyber unit, the Islamic Cyber Army, indicates that Islamic State pays increasing attention to cyber-jihad and in integrating hacking divisions in its organizational structure.
Migrant crisis triggers fears over increase of terrorism threat in Western Europe
In these recent months a record number of hundreds of thousands of migrants escaping violence and political instability across North Africa and the Middle East has entered into Europe. This flow of refugees into European countries has prompted concerns, fomented especially by far-right parties such as Italy’s Northern League, France’s National Front and UK’s UKIP, about the possible infiltration of Islamist terrorists, particularly Islamic State members, among the asylum seekers
Tajikistan : Mutiny of the renegade general Nazarzoda demonstrates increasing challenges for the the stability of the government of Emmomali Rakhmon
A mutiny, launched by the renegade general Nazarzoda and his followers on September 4, that resulted in series of attacks against police posts and was followed by a large-scale search raid in Romit gorge, demonstrate that nearly 2 decades after the end of civil war Tajikistan today is again on the brink of new armed conflict.
Egypt: Expansion of the Suez Canal and increased operational capabilities of IS terrorists raise concerns over the security of the strategic waterway
The recent rocket attack on an Egyptian navy vessel and the arrest of suspected terrorists allegedly plotting bomb attacks along the Suez Canal raise serious concerns about the security of this trade route of strategic importance for Egypt.
Burundi: Months of increasing violence amid controversial elections raise high concerns over security in the country
A series of violent street protests, marred with police crackdown, shooting incidents and bomb attacks, that started in April this year, literally plunged Burundi into chaos. In a climate of widespread fears and intimidation and despite numerous calls for postponement from the international community, parliamentary and local elections took place on June 29. The prospect of a third 5-year term for President Pierre Nkurunziza puts in question security perspectives of the country, which has already a history of bloody ethnic conflict for more than a decade. Ahead of the presidential elections on July 15, the risk of an escalation of tensions remains high, reviving concerns over the possibility of a new civil war.
Risques d'attentats contre les intérêts français extrêmement élevés
Quatre attentats particulièrement significatifs ont été commis ces vendredi 26 juin et lundi 29 juin: - Attaque d’une mosquée chiite au Koweït (25 morts 202 blessés). Cette attaque a été revendiquée par l’E.I. - Décapitation et tentative d’attentat suicide à Saint-Quentin-Fallavier, Isère (1 mort, 2 blessés), France, par Yassine Salhi… Plusieurs comptes Twitter identifiés comme étant utilisés par des sympathisants de l’E.I. se sont félicités de l’attaque et ont évoqué une « Bataille de France », mais aucune revendication officielle n’a été émise. Le procureur de la République de Paris, M. François MOLINS a confirmé mardi matin que cet attentat était lié à l’E.I. Il apparaît en effet, d’après certains témoignages, que Salhi avait été proche du groupe radical Forzane Alizza (« Les Cavaliers de la fierté »), dissous par le ministre de l’Intérieur le 1er mars 2012. Par ailleurs, Salhi a envoyé, après la décapitation de sa victime, deux clichés à un certain Sébastien-Yunès, un converti d’une trentaine d’année parti e n Syrie en novembre 2014 avec femme et enfant. Sébastien-Yunès se serait vanté, dans une communication téléphonique interceptée, d’être le « responsable » de l’attaque. Salhi a été mis en examen mardi soir pour « assassinat en relation avec une entreprise terroriste ».
Terrorist attack of Saint-Quentin-Fallavier: the first Islamic state-style beheading in western europe demonstrates that industrial sites are a new target for “lone wolf” terrorists
The terrorist attack carried out on Friday morning at the entrance of a natural gas factory belonging to the US group Air Products, in Saint-Quentin-Fallavier, demonstrates that industrial sites in Western Europe represent a new target for terrorists. Many messages of support for the attack have been expressed on the Internet by supporters of the Islamic State (IS) and Al-Qaeda. This raises fears of more similar attacks in the near future.
Attaque terroriste de Saint-Quentin-Fallavier: Première décapitation du type de celles de l'EI en Europe occidentale demontre que les sites industriels sont une nouvelle cible pour les attaques terroristes de loups solitaires
L’attaque terroriste perpétrée vendredi matin à l’entrée d’une usine de gaz naturel du groupe américain Air Products, à Saint-Quentin-Fallavier, démontre que les sites industriels en Europe occidentale représentent une nouvelle cible pour les terroristes. De nombreux messages de soutien à l’attaque ont été exprimés sur le net par des sympathisants de l’Etat Islamique(EI) ainsi que d’Al-Qaeda. Ceci laisse craindre d’autres attaques de ce type dans un avenir proche.
Egypt: Fresh attacks in the Nile Valley demonstrate that tourist sites are becoming priority-targets for local terrorist groups
The terrorist attack prevented in Luxor on June 10 and the following statements released by IS-affiliated groups threatening the touristic sites exemplify what is becoming the new terrorist strategy aiming to strike the economy of Egypt. Terrorist organizations seem to realign their actions and deploy new cells in the south of the country, especially in the Nile valley that used to be considered over the past decade as a relatively safe area. Through this strategy Is-affiliated groups set a new priority target and try to open a new front establishing new operative cells in the south. Egyptian jihadists are now turning toward so-called ‘soft targets’ that provide a broad media effect and risk to cause long-term consequences for the national economy.
Bangladesh: Intensified activities of Al-Qaeda-linked terrorist groups risk to contribute to further radicalisation of Muslim population
Since the beginning of May, series of security incidents triggered concerns over the rise of terrorism threat in Bangladesh. Challenged not only by the presence of already existing local radical islamist groups but also by the recent declared development of activities within the country of “international” terrorist organisations, Bangladesh is becoming another area of competition between Islamic State and Al-Qaeda, highlighting the global trend.
Peru: Rising protests in energy and mining sectors as a challenge to the ruling political party
A series of protests, including violent ones, in the energy and mining sectors have been taking place in different Peruvian regions since the beginning of the year 2015. These demonstrations could challenge the newly sworn-in Primer Minister and the political party in power ahead of the 2016 Presidential elections. To recall, on April 27, Pedro Cateriano, won the vote of confidence in Congress with 73 votes in favour, 11 against and 39 abstentions. He had been chosen by Peruvian President Ollanta Humala following the censure of ex-Prime Minister, Ana Jara, over spying allegations on March 30. The fact that Cateriano is a supporter of Humala and that the next Presidential elections are to be held soon, in 2016, make the new Prime Minister as well as the ruling political party particularly vulnerable to future possible outbreaks of violence.
Brazil: Spillover effect of Petrobras corruption scandal suggests new political and economic challenges ahead of the 2016 Olympics
Since the beginning of 2015, large protests have been taking place across Brazil targeting President Rousseff and her political party, the Workers’ Party (PT). These protests are addressing different issues but the disruptive factor has doubtlessly been the explosion of the Petrobras corruption scandal. Though the Petrobras corruption case opened last year in 2014, it is currently being the focus of media attention as arrests are being made and more information is being revealed. The scandal and its spillover effect could be a turning point in the country’s history and create new political and economic challenges ahead of the 2016 Olympic Games to be held in Rio de Janeiro.
Briefings 60-80 »


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