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28/09/2024
MIDDLE EAST: THE DEATH OF HASSAN NASRALLAH MARKS A DECISIVE STRATEGIC TURNING POINT IN THE CONDUCT OF THE WAR
At mid-morning on Saturday, the Tsahal headquarters announced that the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, had been killed on Friday evening in a massive strike on the Dahieh Janoubyé ("Southern Suburbs") district, Hezbollah's stronghold in Beirut. This unprecedented targeted elimination marks a real turning point in Israeli strategy: until now, Tsahal and the Hebrew State's intelligence services had "only" targeted leaders of the terrorist organisation's military wing, without going after its political wing.
28/09/2024
MOYEN ORIENT : LA MORT D’HASSAN NASRALLAH MARQUE UN TOURNANT STRATÉGIQUE DÉCISIF DANS LA CONDUITE DE LA GUERRE
C’est en milieu de matinée, ce samedi que l’état-major de Tsahal a annoncé que le chef du Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, avait été tué vendredi soir dans une frappe massive sur le quartier de Dahieh Janoubyé (« Faubourgs sud »), le fief du Hezbollah à Beyrouth. Cette élimination ciblée sans précédent marque un véritable tournant dans la stratégie israélienne : jusqu’à présent, Tsahal et les services de renseignement de l’Etat hébreu n’avaient ciblé « que » des dirigeants de la branche militaire de l’organisation terroriste, sans s’en prendre à son aile politique.
26/07/2024
THE OLYMPIC GAMES: A HIGH-VALUE TARGET FOR TERRORISTS
Massive police operations took place this Thursday morning in Europe, leading to 9 arrests - 7 in Belgium and 2 in Germany. The authorities have so far refused to establish a link with the Olympic Games, but our sources assure us that such a link does exist, and that it was indeed this world competition that was targeted. In any case, one thing is certain: with just a few hours to go before the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games, all the indicators are red. Intelligence services are convinced that the Games are and will be targeted by the Islamist movement and, perhaps, by other terrorist groups. But everything is being done to prevent the worst: the resources that will be deployed in Paris on Friday evening are unprecedented.
22/11/2023
COMMENT ISRAËL MÈNE LA GUERRE URBAINE À GAZA
La guerre que mène aujourd’hui Israël contre le Hamas est une guerre urbaine, ce qui signifie qu’elle répond à des règles d’engagement très spécifiques et produit obligatoirement un nombre important de victimes civiles (dites « collatérales »). Dictées par la nature du théâtre des opérations, ces règles sont impératives mais ces victimes et, dans le cas qui nous occupe, l’exploitation qui en est faite par la propagande du Hamas – relayée par des organisations extérieures disant défendre « la cause palestinienne » - sont évidemment de nature à brouiller la perception que le public peut avoir de cette guerre et à remettre en cause sa légitimité.
03/11/2023
HASSAN NASRALLAH CHOOSES TO MAINTAIN "STRATEGIC UNCERTAINTY”
In an hour-long speech marked by the ambiguity typical of Hezbollah, its leader Hassan Nasrallah threatened Israel and the United States, but without formally announcing that his movement was going to go to war. In short, it maintains a strategic ambiguity that forces the Hebrew state to maintain significant resources on its northern border.
03/11/2023
HASSAN NASRALLAH CHOISIT DE MAINTENIR « L’INCERTITUDE STRATÉGIQUE
Dans un discours d’une heure, frappé d’une ambiguïté assez typique du Hezbollah, son chef Hassan Nasrallah a menacé Israël et les Etats-Unis, mais sans formellement annoncer que son mouvement allait entrer dans la guerre. En bref, il maintient une ambiguïté stratégique qui oblige l’Etat hébreu à maintenir des moyens important sur sa frontière nord.
19/10/2023
GAZA HOSPITAL: HAMAS MANIPULATION FAILS
An explosion hit Gaza's Ahli Arab hospital on Tuesday evening, killing "several hundred people" according to Hamas. The terrorist organisation immediately accused the Israelis of deliberately bombing the hospital. Thirty-six hours later, it appears that Israel had nothing to do with the strike and that the death toll was probably (very) grossly exaggerated. But the damage is done. Welcome to Hybrid Warfare, in which the manipulation of information, Infowar, is a (lethal) weapon in its own right.
19/10/2023
HOPITAL DE GAZA : ECHEC D’UNE MANIPULATION DU HAMAS
Une explosion a touché, mardi soir, l’hôpital Ahli Arab de Gaza, faisant « plusieurs centaines de morts », selon les bilans fournis par le Hamas. L’organisation terroriste a immédiatement accusé les Israéliens d’avoir délibérément bombardé l’hôpital. Trente-six heures plus tard, il apparait qu’Israël n’a rien à voir avec cette frappe et que le bilan des pertes a probablement été (très) grossièrement exagéré. Mais le mal est fait. Bienvenue dans la Guerre hybride dans laquelle la manipulation de l’information, l’Infowar, est une arme (létale) à part entière.
18/10/2023
APRES LES ATTENTATS D’ARRAS ET DE BRUXELLES, LE RISQUE D’ATTENTATS « COPYCAT »
Dans les cafouillages qui ont suivi l’attentat de Bruxelles, celui qui a le plus frappé l’opinion publique belge est sans doute la divergence entre Flamands et Francophones sur l’ouverture des écoles. Mais y avait-il vraiment un risque que le terroriste s’attaque à des établissements scolaires ? Etant donné que le terroriste est mort, il est évidemment impossible de le savoir. Sauf si l’enquête révèle, par exemple, qu’il s’était livré à des repérages sur des écoles. Mais cette approche différenciée est effectivement très intéressante.
18/10/2023
THE RISK OF VIOLENCE AND TERRORISM LINKED TO THE WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST IS MAJOR ON A GLOBAL SCALE
The war between Israel and Hamas has already provoked numerous demonstrations and incidents around the world. The vast majority of these demonstrations are in support of the Palestinian cause and the incidents have targeted Jewish communities, but some have also targeted Muslims (as in the United States, where a 6-year-old boy was murdered by a man in his seventies who also seriously injured his mother).
18/10/2023
LE RISQUE DE VIOLENCES ET DE TERRORISME LIÉS À LA GUERRE AU PROCHE-ORIENT EST MAJEUR AU PLAN MONDIAL
La guerre entre Israël et le Hamas a déjà provoqué de très nombreuses manifestations et des incidents à travers le monde. En très grande majorité, ces manifestations interviennent en soutien à la cause palestinienne et les incidents visaient les communautés juives, mais certains ont également ont visé des musulmans (comme aux Etats-Unis ou un jeune garçon de 6 ans a été assassiné par un septuagénaire qui a également gravement blessé sa mère).
10/10/2023
ISRAEL : STATE OF THE PLAY AT 15:00 GMT, OCTOBER 10, 2023
The controversy over the failure of Israeli intelligence to detect Hamas's preparations, which lasted months, and the failure of the army to react quickly last Saturday (according to numerous local sources, civilians were left to fend for themselves for hours, or even a whole day, before the first soldiers arrived) has now spread to politics. Was Benjamin Netanyahu aware that a Hamas attack was being planned? According to an Egyptian intelligence official quoted by the American news agency AP. According to this source, the Egyptian intelligence services contacted the Israeli Prime Minister ten days before the surprise Hamas attack to warn him of "unusual developments".
07/10/2023
ISRAEL : STATE OF THE PLAY AT 11:00 GMT, OCTOBER 7, 2023
This briefing is based on public sources (OSINT) and official statements by Israeli authorities or Hamas spokespersons. Hamas launched a surprise and unprecedented attack against Israel this morning, with over 2,500 missiles/rockets fired from Gaza and a massive terrorist infiltration by land and sea. Yesterday was the 50th anniversary of the beginning of the “Kippur War” (October 6, 1973)
02/06/2023
THE USE OF LAW AND MILITARY JUSTICE TO REPRESS "POLITICAL DISSENT" IN LEBANON: THE OMAR HARFOUCH CASE
Omar Harfouch, a Lebanese national (but resident in France for 30 years) and long-time campaigner against corruption in Lebanon, was recently charged with "treason" for having "maintained contacts with Israeli nationals". An arrest warrant has been issued for him and he could face trial before a military court. This is an opportunity to take stock of legislation and practices that are all too often used to silence any voice of dissent in the Land of the Cedars.
02/06/2023
L’UTILISATION DE LA LOI ET DE LA JUSTICE MILITAIRE POUR RÉPRIMER LA « DISSIDENCE POLITIQUE » AU LIBAN : LE CAS OMAR HARFOUCH
Le ressortissant libanais (mais résidant en France depuis 30 ans) Omar Harfouch, militant de longue date contre la corruption au Liban, a été, récemment, accusé de « trahison » pour avoir « entretenu des contacts avec des ressortissants israéliens ». Il est l’objet d’un mandat d’arrêt et pourrait être jugé devant un tribunal militaire. L’occasion de faire le point sur une législation et une pratique trop souvent utilisée pour faire taire toute voix dissidente au pays des Cèdres.
17/10/2020
The Security Situation in Hong Kong and Global Implications of China's Assertive Regional Posture
China’s “one country, two systems” model initiated with Hong Kong’s handover in 1997 after a century and a half of British colonial rule. Twenty-three years after the handover, China seems to have abandoned its promise of a separate system for Hong Kong.
22/04/2020
The use of innovative technologies in the fight against COVID-19 and its political implications
The wide use of innovative technologies in the fight against the Coronavirus pandemic that started in December 2019 could threaten fundamental liberties, undermine the values of democratic governments and alter political dynamics.
21/04/2020
The Balochistan Insurgency: A major security issue for Pakistan and its impact on Chinese interests in the region
Between economic interests, socio-political issues, and ethnic tensions, Balochistan has been a region subject to insecurity for more than 60 years, where insurgencies are continuous and in which a myriad of actors have diverging and often conflicting interests.
16/03/2020
West Papua Pro-independence Movements and their impact on the security situation in Indonesia
In West Papua and Papua, often referred to collectively as West Papua, pro-independence movements emerged in 1969. These movements have, since then waged a persistent low-level insurgency in West Papua against perceived Indonesian occupation.
26/01/2020
The European Union of Security and Defence: What has changed in the last four years
In recent years, the European Union (EU) has been facing increasingly challenging security threats, ranging from growing armed conflicts in Europe’s neighbourhood, Russia’s increasingly aggressive posture, a worsening situation in both the Middle East and North Africa and Trump’s intimations of a new American isolationism to the rise of terrorism and violent extremism, hybrid warfare, including cyberattacks against the EU’s vital infrastructure and disinformation campaigns. Since the approval of the Global Strategy for the European Union’s Foreign and Security Policy in 2016, the combination of a unique political momentum and the sense of urgency created by the above-mentioned threats, led the EU to substantially step up its efforts towards a stronger cooperation and coordination of its security and defence policies.
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Abu Sayyaf Afghanistan Alberto Caballero Algeria Alicia Jensen Al-Qaeda anarchist Andre Burstin Ansar Al-Islam Ansar Bait Al-Maqdis Ansar Dine Ansarullah anti-Balaka Anton Sehnaoui AQIM AQIS AQMI Argentine Arras Arthur de Liedekerke Australia Axelle Vandendriessche Azerbaijan Bangladesh Belgique Belgium Beyrouth BIFF Blaise Ortiz Boko Haram Brazil Bruxelles Burkina Faso Burundi Cadente Copper Cameroon Canada CAR Central African Republic Central Asia Chili China civil unrest civil war Claude Moniquet Colombia Compaoré Coree corruption Cosa Nostra coup Defence Denmark Di Natala Diplomacy Djihad islamique Dos Santos DRC drones drugs Egypt Egypte Eliska Puckova ELSE energy ESISC Etat Islamique Etats Unis Etats-Unis Ethiopia ETIM Europe European Union Evgenia Gvozdeva Extremism FARC far-right Finland Foteini Fragkou France Gaza Genovefa Etienne Germany green economy Guerrero hacking Hamas hassan nasrallah Hezbollah Human Rights India Insurgency Intelligence Iran Iraq ISIS ISIS-K Islamic State Islamism Ismail Haniyeh Israel Italy Japan jihad Jo Biden Kashmir Kazakhstan Kieran Doyle Korea Koweit Lashkar-e-Taiba Lazarevic Leah Kazar Leandro Di Natala Lebanon l'Etat Islamique Lhoussain Azergui Liban Libya Loucheur Louise Schabelmann Mali Mapuche Mattia Caniglia Mexico migrants MILF Mohamed Fahmi Morocco Morsi Najib Mikati NATO netanyahu Nieto Nigeria North Africa nucleaire Olivia de Fouchier Olivier Loucheur Olympic Games Omar Harfouch organised crime Pakistan Palestinian territories Paris Pauline Ravillard Peru Petrobras Philippines Pierre-Alexis Quenot piracy Pluspetrol Political risk Politics Post-Soviet Countries President Pierre Nkurunziza protests Qatar Rachel Larned Raphaël Ramos Rauf Tuzun refugees Russia Rwanda Ryad Salameh Sahel Sarah Baudinet Saudi Arabia sectarian violence Seleka shipping Sinai Solene Jomier Solène Metais Somali state Somalia South Africa Spain Stefano Sarsale Sudan Suez Canal Sweden Syria Syrie Tajikistan Taliban Terrorism terrorisme terrorist terrorists Tia Maria project Tsahal Tunisia Tunisie Turkey Ukraine United Kingdom United Nations United States Uyghur Uyghur Muslims Venezuela video Vietnam waterway William Racimora Xinjiang Yeme Yemen Yuliana Lefevre

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